Well, since we are saying who would win, saying, "If the odds were even..." is't the point. Xerxes didn't have two swords. So Raven won. Xarkon had the advantage. That is how you win, anyway.
What Ouflah is saying is completely true. After all, in a completely fair contest between two equally matched opponents, nobody would win. The deciding factor in any fight is who has the advantage. It could be a natural advantage (sharper reflexes, stronger muscles, longer limbs etc.),a technological advantage (better weapons, stronger armour, faster transport etc.) or a strategic advantage (surprise attack, more troops, better discipline etc.).
Having to take into account both the natural abilities of the individual, the technological advancements available to the soldiers and the composition of the whole force itself, added to strategic advantages and the occasional catalyst that nobody can predict, it's actually incredibly hard to determine which force would ultimately conquer the other.
I think Scorp has (knowingly or unknowingly) brought the two sides into a stalemate situation. Mars' side has more troops, about a third of those troops have a technological advantage (those from Xarkon) and they also have the strategic advantage in that Mars was expecting war for quite a while and is prepared. Radcliff's side has less troops, but a larger amount of them have a technological advantage. They do have the strategic disadvantage, but the war is taking place in the wider Nova Refuge Galaxy and Victory and Yavakaro combined likely have more off-world possessions than Xarkon (with of course the meagre additions Grimm's Army and Zygbar can give).
Overall, I feel that they're pretty matched sides and that it would take a catalyst (like the invasion of Human Space by Helexith or the Council of Harmony joining the Victorian side) to prevent the fighting or push one side into a winning position.
My suspicion is that in the end it will be less a case of who wins the Victory vs. Xarkon war, and more a case of who wins the Human vs. Helexith war